تقدير الحجم الامثل للانفاق العام باستخدام نموذج العتبات دراسة حالة الجزائر (1970_2024)

Abstract

:ـThis study examines the estimation of the optimal level of public expenditure and tests its nonlinear impact on economic growth in Algeria over the period (1970–2024). To achieve this objective, the Threshold Regression methodology was employed, specifically the Bai–Perron test for multiple structural breaks, which allows for the precise identification of structural change points in the relationship between macroeconomic variables. The estimation results reveal the existence of two critical expenditure thresholds, the first identified statistically at 27.85% and the second at 33.25% of GDP. These thresholds divide the relationship between government spending and economic growth into three distinct regimes, empirically supporting the Armey Curve hypothesis. In the low government spending regime (below 27.85%), the results show no statistical significance for both investment and the employment rate, due to insufficient infrastructure and public facilities to stimulate economic activity. In the intermediate regime, which represents the optimal range (between 27.85% and 33.25%), investment (gross fixed capital formation) has a positive, statistically significant, and strong effect in driving economic growth. In the high spending regime (above 33.25%), the stimulative effect of investment disappears, while the employment rate exhibits a negative and statistically significant impact, clearly reflecting the emergence of “disguised unemployment” resulting from unproductive administrative hiring. At the same time, oil prices show a negative effect, reflecting symptoms of the “Dutch disease” in the national economy. Overall, these findings confirm that the relationship between the size of public expenditure and economic growth in Algeria is not simply linear. Exceeding the critical and optimal thresholds (beyond 33.25%) weakens the efficiency of fiscal policy and undermines the productive effectiveness of its investment tools due to waste and the expansion of operating expenditures at the expense of capital expenditures. This highlights the need to rebalance the public budget and operate within safe expenditure limits to ensure sustainable economic stability