03-Faculty of Economic Sciences, Commerce and Management Sciences
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كلية العلوم الاقتصادية و التجارية و علوم التسيير
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Item التضخم في الجزائر بين العوامل الداخلية والصدمات الخارجية دراسة قياسية تحليلية للفترة 1990-2023(جامعة الشهيد الشيخ العربي التبسي تبسة, 2026) هديل، قتال; د. سعيدة، مموهدفت هذه الدراسة إلى تحليل وقياس أثر العوامل الداخلية والصدمات الخارجية على معدلات التضخم في الجزائر خلال الفترة (1990– 2023)، وذلك بالاعتماد على المنهج الوصفي التحليلي في الجانب النظري، والمنهج القياسي الكمي باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL) في الجانب التطبيقي، بهدف دراسة طبيعة العلاقات في الأجلين القصير والطويل. أظهرت النتائج وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الأجل بين التضخم ومحدداته، مع دلالة إحصائية لاختبار الحدود. كما بيّنت النتائج وجود أثر طردي معنوي لكل من الكتلة النقدية، الإنفاق العام، والتضخم المستورد وأسعار النفط على التضخم، مقابل علاقة عكسية معنوية لكل من النمو الاقتصادي، البطالة، وسعر الصرف. وتشير هذه النتائج إلى دور التوسع النقدي والمالي والصدمات الخارجية في تغذية الضغوط التضخمية، مقابل أهمية العوامل الحقيقية والاستقرار الاقتصادي في الحد منها. كما أكد النموذج كفاءة إحصائية واستقرارا قياسيا مع سرعة تكيف نحو التوازن طويل الأجل= This study aimed to analyze and measure the impact of internal factors and external shocks on inflation rates in Algeria over the period (1990–2023). To achieve this objective, a descriptive-analytical approach was employed for the theoretical framework, while a quantitative econometric approach was applied using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the nature of relationships in both the short and long run. The empirical results revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between inflation and its determinants, as confirmed by the Bounds Test. The findings also indicated a positive and statistically significant relationship between inflation and each of money supply, public expenditure, imported inflation, and oil prices, while a negative and significant relationship was found with economic growth, unemployment, and the exchange rate. These results highlight the role of monetary and fiscal expansion, as well as external shocks, in fueling inflationary pressures, whereas real factors and macroeconomic stability contribute to mitigating them. Moreover, the model demonstrated strong explanatory power, econometric stability, and a relatively fast speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium.Item تقدير الحجم الامثل للانفاق العام باستخدام نموذج العتبات دراسة حالة الجزائر (1970_2024)(جامعة الشهيد الشيخ العربي التبسي تبسة, 2026) وصال بناد; د. بوعمرة حسن:ـThis study examines the estimation of the optimal level of public expenditure and tests its nonlinear impact on economic growth in Algeria over the period (1970–2024). To achieve this objective, the Threshold Regression methodology was employed, specifically the Bai–Perron test for multiple structural breaks, which allows for the precise identification of structural change points in the relationship between macroeconomic variables. The estimation results reveal the existence of two critical expenditure thresholds, the first identified statistically at 27.85% and the second at 33.25% of GDP. These thresholds divide the relationship between government spending and economic growth into three distinct regimes, empirically supporting the Armey Curve hypothesis. In the low government spending regime (below 27.85%), the results show no statistical significance for both investment and the employment rate, due to insufficient infrastructure and public facilities to stimulate economic activity. In the intermediate regime, which represents the optimal range (between 27.85% and 33.25%), investment (gross fixed capital formation) has a positive, statistically significant, and strong effect in driving economic growth. In the high spending regime (above 33.25%), the stimulative effect of investment disappears, while the employment rate exhibits a negative and statistically significant impact, clearly reflecting the emergence of “disguised unemployment” resulting from unproductive administrative hiring. At the same time, oil prices show a negative effect, reflecting symptoms of the “Dutch disease” in the national economy. Overall, these findings confirm that the relationship between the size of public expenditure and economic growth in Algeria is not simply linear. Exceeding the critical and optimal thresholds (beyond 33.25%) weakens the efficiency of fiscal policy and undermines the productive effectiveness of its investment tools due to waste and the expansion of operating expenditures at the expense of capital expenditures. This highlights the need to rebalance the public budget and operate within safe expenditure limits to ensure sustainable economic stability